Possible Tornado Outbreak (again) for TX, OK on 4/3/08

[ESipes_89]

First, the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook:



SPC AC 020559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N TX...OK AND WRN
AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CNTRL TX THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF AR INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL MOVE E INTO SRN CA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE E ACROSS AZ/NM AS A
DEAMPLYFING WAVE LATER THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED
WITHIN STRENGTHENING LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE RCKYS.

AT LWR LEVELS...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ENE FROM NW TX AND
WRN/SRN OK THROUGH AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THAT
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS. AS THE
AZ/NM TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...WRN PART OF FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE S
ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SRN PLNS THURSDAY EVENING. S AND E OF THE
FRONT...INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD...WITH THE 60 DEG
F SFC ISODROSOTHERM LIKELY REACHING SE MO/WRN KY BY 00Z FRIDAY.

...SRN PLNS INTO LWR TN/OH VLYS...
...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF N TX/OK AND WRN AR
THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...

COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO YIELD
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES INVOF SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW TX AND WRN/SRN OK THURSDAY
AFTN.

IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO COMMENT SPECIFICALLY ON MESOSCALE
DETAILS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
STORMS IN OK EARLY IN THE DAY. BUT OVERALL SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN A
CORRIDOR OF UNCAPPED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/
NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. AS THE WAVE
DEVELOPS ESE TOWARD THE RED RVR...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE IN THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK/CNTRL TX AND
INTO AR AND THE LWR TN/OH VLYS EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS/CLUSTERS MAY ALSO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS S CNTRL TX AS INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHEN
ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE.

..CORFIDI.. 04/02/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1130Z (6:30AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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I couldn't have said it better myself.

A few more Details to better prepare you:

Time and Place- Storms will initiate aound 3-4pm in the Vernon, Wichita Falls, Altus, Lawton area.

Movement- Storms will move ENE at around 40MPH

Main Threats- Tornadoes, Hail larger than baseballs, Winds greater than 75MPH, and Flash Flooding.

-Eric

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A few things you may not have recognised in the SPC outlook:

SLGT = Slight
MDT = Moderate
SFC = Surface
AOA = At or around
CAPE = Covective Availible and Potential Energy (If I remember correctly)

Helpful Weather Links:

www.spc.noaa.gov
www.weather.gov
www.wunderground.com
www.weather.cod.edu
www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=7 (Click on the date of choice for forecasts and dicussion from other chasers.)