01-14-09, 04:16 PM | #1 |
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the economy is taking it's toll
well up until now we have been very luck around here. our area has been hit to a lesser extent than most as far as losing jobs and such goes. yesterday i was told that they are cutting our hours at work. we normally work 48hrs one week and 36hrs the next with anything over 36hrs being time and a half, so we really made our money on the long weeks. well now we are going down to 24hrs one week and 36hrs the next so there is no overtime. part of this is due to the economy but in large part it is weather related. we make vinyl siding and our biggest accounts are in minnesota where the high for the next few days will be -1 degrees, so there isn't much vinyl being hung. add this to an already rough housing market and it looks kinda bad. in fact the plant leader said "there is no end in sight". as bad as that sounds i really think it isn't going to be that bad. our business usually picks up in mid march and he said that we are probably looking at 6 weeks worth of this short work schedule so i guess we are still lucky to be working at all. plus it gives me a chance to really work on the jig company as well. the part that makes me mad is that we get our work schedule at the end of december for the whole next year, so we know a year ahead of time what days we have off. but you can't make any plans for the summer becuase of overtime. i mean you can have a trip planned for 6 months and then have to cancel it a week before you go because they make you work overtime. so we tried to plan on going to shreveport for the classic and then ky for the get together while things would be slow. then they pull this crap on us, when are we supposed to do anything (i know they don't care if we go on vacations or not). we are still somewhat planning on making the classic and the get togethere both so we'll just have to see where the chips fall.
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01-14-09, 04:19 PM | #2 |
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I lost 30% of my profit sharing at work. Fortunatly I got off lucky, I have only been here for 9 years and have plenty of time to rebound/grow that egg. Unfortunatly some of our older employees that have been here for 40+ years do not have that option. One of our employees thats been here for around 20 years lost 20K+ dollars, so you can imagine what a 40 year employee lost.
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01-14-09, 04:32 PM | #3 | |
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01-14-09, 05:17 PM | #4 |
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Crig you might be in better shape than you realize due to people not buying new houses but fixing up the ones they have. A little paint, some new siding, and quick remodel of the bathroom is much cheaper than selling at a loss and trying to get into something new. Just hope that the gasoline prices stay down for a year or so and the banks start to loan out a few $$$ here and there.
Plus the extra down time gives you more time to fill those jig orders!!! |
01-14-09, 05:44 PM | #5 | |
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01-14-09, 05:51 PM | #6 |
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You know the economy is struggling, especially here in upstate NY, when they start laying off school teachers. We've been cutting jobs in our school for a couple years now...
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01-14-09, 05:54 PM | #7 |
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C Rig , just go to minnesota with a paintball gun and shoot up some houses , I figure at those temps a paintball should put some holes in the vinyl ??? Kidding. Thats bad news brother. I am sure our new president will fix everything....again , kidding.
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01-14-09, 05:55 PM | #8 |
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Hey , make some flippin jigs and I will do my part to help with the money loss...
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01-14-09, 06:24 PM | #9 |
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haha it takes money to make new designs...... sometimes a lot of money too. seriously flipping jigs is something that we are working on but it is probably the hardest head to get right. hookeye angles, shape of the head, hook size, and hook style are all crucial to finding what comes through grass and brush the best. we are working on it but it is gonna take some time to get it right and there is no way i will sell it if i am not 100% pleased with it.
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01-14-09, 08:49 PM | #10 |
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i have been very fortunate with the line of work i do, Wich is Foreign Exchange Currency Trading. But you know if takes at least a year for most states to realize that there is a recession also.
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01-14-09, 08:54 PM | #11 |
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I hear ya C-Rig. I will just keep waiting....
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01-14-09, 09:18 PM | #12 |
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I'm thinking its gonna get a lot worse if we see inflation spike as a result of all the bailouts. People will then pour their money into commodities, including oil again, raising the price of gas back to where it was or higher.
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01-14-09, 09:41 PM | #13 |
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When shifts are reduced to less hours and people lose jobs, there is less money paid in taxes. When there is less money paid in taxes, the government runs overbudget. Then, the government employees lose their jobs and even less money is generated. I think things are gonna get worse before they get better.
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01-14-09, 09:57 PM | #14 | |
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They always do, but after that it gets better.
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01-14-09, 10:21 PM | #15 | |
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See, not only would the gov't be running a deficit had spending stayed the same, but with all the bailouts and "stimulus" packages, the effect of the government running overbudget is magnified several times. In fact it could be so bad that we our credit rating could drop. We started panicking back in October and it is doing more harm than good, cutting checks we cant pay for - which is what got us in the mess to begin with.
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01-15-09, 02:27 AM | #16 |
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Well guys I see and hear about this everyday up here in MI. Hear about the big 3? We do everyday. Bailout is not a bailout but a loan? Well great lets hope they pay it back by 2011 or whatever. So think of it this way, we are giving 3 big companies 2 years to regain all there money and we have been filling the pinch for a year or two. So lets say this ression is going to take 4-5 years to get out of.
Oh gas and oil, this is another great news item. The best one I heard lately is the goverment wants gas to be $4 a gal!!!! Not because we need to make our car more efficent but that could pay for all the workers big salary and mishaps. Great idea, stick it to the compaines who need to haul their product across the US and the poor people who need to drive to work everyday for bad decsion making. |
01-15-09, 03:31 AM | #17 |
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Nitro....even if they pay it back it is still not a true loan. The value of money over time shows that a one for one pay back is a loss to the lender.
While it pains me to say so, if they want to raise the money on stuff then make it one stuff where I have a choice. I smoke like a chimney and drink like a fish. Raise those taxes before you make a choice to do it on gasoline. I type this while sipping crown royal and smoking a marlboro but again it is my choice to do so. I like Doc lost my butt this year in my retirement fund, but I am also young enough to believe it will bounce back in time for me. As far as long it will take, it is anyone's guess. I would suspect that the housing market is another 18 to 24 months from turning upward. If there is any good news in all of this, I believe that we are not too far from bottoming out (less than a year). I think we will remain stagnant for one or two quarters and then finally see the begining of an upswing. That growth will be slow and it make take a decade to be back to where we were just a couple of years ago, but I believe we will get there.
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01-15-09, 06:21 AM | #18 |
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Its so bad, I gotta eat cereal with a fork so the other people in the house will still have milk for theirs. P N J
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01-15-09, 10:24 AM | #19 |
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01-15-09, 11:46 AM | #20 |
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Things are bad now but think of it as a rich person would. If you can buy something an afford it still try investing into land. Such as a lot somewhere that will be developed in the future. If you dont have a house and want one there is no better time to buy. Sports cars, yes if you can buy one of these new ones I would cause soon you might not ever see a rwd V8 again. Of course I can't do any of these but would invest in some land if I could.
Also if most of the companies you work for are like mine, they start the year off very budget tight. As of keeping hours done and try to be more efficent. Then after the slow months of nothing but cold things tend to pick up and the whole 40 and out doesn't seem to apply. Just hang in there guys, things will get better in time. Just don't charge everything and you should make out ok. |
01-15-09, 12:00 PM | #21 |
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I work directly in the day to day operations of a large Real Estate firm and with related investments...trust me..it's bad! The worst part is that I believe it's our own fault that we are in this mess...bottom line...GREED! People bought houses they knew they could barely afford...yes, banks allowed this to happend, but "the people" who bought these didn't need to extend themselves beyond what they could afford...A mortgage payment is only the beginning..you've got heat, water, sewer, electric & basic maintenance..it all adds up. The bankers/lenders/brokers were all greed driven from the money they were making, usually 1point (1percent of loan value) up front and 1 point on the backside or lender value point...so a deal for $200,000 would pocket that broker with roughly $4,000, but many brokers usually ended up getting 3-5 points on a loan...
The other blame is directly on the reguations of these loans..(Fannie Mae..Freddie Mac)..YOU CANNOT allow a bank to give 100%-120% financing...If you haven't seen the 120% loans..I have dealt with them and they are freakin' scary..Unlike the older generation who actually had a cash deposit down of 20-30%These people have NOTHING invested into this property, and then on top of their loan they take out an equity line (if possible) spend that money and then...they walk, they don't lose anything but their credit rating, the housing market falls...the house is no longer worth what is owed on it, the bank can't sell it, ...and BAM..there's the majority of the problem..(in a nut shell)...add to this that vacant homes tend to attract problems and leaving them without proper maintainence just adds to the unability to sell them..
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01-15-09, 05:39 PM | #22 |
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"You are neglecting something."
WTL, I am not neglecting something. In fact, your example, i.e. the bailouts, further reinforces what I am saying. You are expounding upon what I briefly stated. So, in essence, we both agree. |
01-16-09, 01:24 AM | #23 |
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Wishin, that sounded wrong - I should have said "in addition to that"...
I think gold or silver in addition to land or oil would be wise. I know oil has to go up. Gold and silver make sense. Land eventually will creep back up but it hasnt bottomed out quite yet so as an investment it is more long term. The great thing about land is that it has an intrinsic value second to none. Just watch taxes. Right now my folks have property in south atlanta and it is being charged high 2007 taxes on the value of the property, but not really bringing in that much with its lease. You guys gotta survive. Look to our families. The old time American values of financial prudence do apply, they would have saved us from this mess. That is why I am still so down on the leaders in Washington, you dont hear good sound logic from them - you hear "we are gonna have to spend our way out of this" Hope Obama and all the statists only last 1 more term.
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01-16-09, 01:32 AM | #24 |
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Interesting read. This guy says now is the time to add to your 401K because your dollar buys more stocks then it did before. This is based on a faith that it WILL bounce back.
I am not condoning nor condemning the idea, but thought I would share it. http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/01/15...01k/index.html
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01-16-09, 03:24 AM | #25 | |
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