How much of fishing is luck versus skill?

[Slayem9]

When we have a good day, how much can be attributed to skill and experience versus just plain, good luck?

When I think about all the great days I've had, versus those that I'd just as soon forget, I wonder if the bad ones were due to bad luck (some of which we bring upon ourselves by a bad mind-set) or because the fishing stunk? What makes fishing stink?

The obvious reaons fish aren't biting are the stuff of magazine articles. Weather fronts, water too cold or too hot, too much algae/ to little oxygen etc., etc. Whatever the reason, the turnoff will usually be revealed in a poor weigh-in by even the best anglers.

When fish are biting (indicating the generally active mood of the fish population), feeding and gorging are the most obvious reasons given. Â*Schooling fish demonstrate this better than at any other time and solid patterns are easy to discover and take advantage of. Skill and experience does play a part in the biggest fish, but anyone can catch numbers in this situatution. (Guess you could call it luck that you decided to fish this body of water, on that particular day, under ideal conditions! Â*

Obviously, when you catch large bass on tough days, part is luck because, of all the miles of shoreline you cast to, your lure hit the jack pot of fishing and your lure was struck immediately. Fighting a large fish that jumps and surges powerfully, brings skill back into the equation. But luck is also a contributor since: the nick in your line didn't break the real lb. test of 2 lbs., or that defective hook didn't snap, or the fish didn't wrap the line around the trolling motor, etc., etc.

The fact that you knew what lure to use for a certain shoreline or structure, indicates less luck was needed, than skill and experience. Location, location, location or, in other words, the strike zone, is the most dominant factor of fishing success or failure. The best lures in the world, in the most capable hands, won't matter a bit, if the lure isn't where the fish are. The secondary elements of angling success are, the proper set of lures, worked properly. Sounds simple, but experience and skill make it so.

The odds are used to a great degree in backgammon and poker. Go against the odds, and only freak luck will allow you a few wins. Better anglers play the percentages, just like good card players. They, in fact, raise their luck by basing their fish locations on probability. Before BASS banned prior-discussion before a BASS tournament, many pro anglers hired local guides to fish with their scouts a week before the contest even started. I'm a lifetime member of BASS and would get phone calls from out-of-towners, Â*inquiring whether I would be interested in guiding, all expenses paid, on a local water.

I think that is what probably happened to Roland Martin 10 years ago in the Hudson River Classic. He stayed in a creek that held bass 2 weeks before he even got to the state, but could only cull dinks for two days and placed way down the list. (I know, because I fished that creek 2 weeks before with my club and caught over a dozen bass per outing weighing over 2 pounds!) Â*But, the real action was 30 miles south, the weekend of the tournament. Bad luck, bad judgement combined, along with inexperience on that body of water, resulted in fewer options. Did he listen to bad advice, or just hold on to false hope? Â*??? Â*:-[Classics aren't won before hand anymore; there is just too much talent that do their homework, have what it takes to reduce the odds of failure and most important, to change with conditions. The rest of us mortals have to contend with more luck-less skill and need to tell ourselves that we're better (or luckier) than the next guy, if only for a day. Â* ;D

Sam Â*

[zman]

I think skill is consistancy. We have all had days where we could even compete with the Roland Martins or Kevin Van Dams, but they are few and far between. I can even remember one instance when I was pretty new to fishing, I was fishing from shore on wilson lake...and there was a live bait tourney going on where people below the wheeler dam turbines were fishing for smallmouth...and after I heard the winning weight I realized that if I had been in on the wildcat tournament I would have won by at least 6 pounds with fish that were caught on artificials. Now I wasn't the better angler, I was just in the right place at the right time and I discovered the right pattern. It was luck. I've also at the same time seen little kids who caught great fish that I would have loved to have had, and I don't believe they had more skill than me - just the right place at the right time.

[Rich]

Like my dad used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good"

[macgyver]

OK SS, you're only allowed to post your questions on 1 site, I can't keep repeating myself all of the time ;D, then again maybe I can repeat myself all of the time, maybe I can repeat myself all of the time, maybe I can repeat myself all of the time Just kidding read my response on nybass.com

Lizards

[Slayem9]

I did LR. Now read my repsonse! on NYBASS! ;D

[OhioBass]

[quote author=Rebbasser link=board=news;num=1097857775;start=0#2 date=10/15/04 at 13:07:40]Like my dad used to say, "I'd rather be lucky than good" [/quote]
i say that too

[macgyver]

[quote author=senkosam link=board=news;num=1097857775;start=0#4 date=10/15/04 at 16:10:50]I did LR. Now read my repsonse! on NYBASS! ;D

[/quote]


I did and as you stated, we agree again ;D, great minds think alike huh

Lizards

[Rob Mak]

i feel it is more skill and knowlage of your body of water. weather the fish bite depends on the fish. the more confident you are about the equipment/tackle you are using the better you can use this tackle/equipment. in a given area. knowlage of the body of water takes longer and only by actually fishing a given area.



zooker

[mallard]

You can wear funny looking clothes with random labels on them and claim to be a pro, but you can still be outfished by a beginner.

Fish are unpredictable. They don't follow our rules. They do whatever they want. We can't control that.

Sure there is skill, such as being able to make a good guess where a hungry fish might be, and how to cast accurately, and make a convincing presentation. But to deny "luck" is to deny this reality.

[catfishtonyd]

The more skill you have, the less you need to think about luck.

[BassNva]

IMO,,luck has absolutely nothing to do with it.you either know your sh** or you don't.if you don't and you catch fish,that's not luck.that's throwing a bait that the fish want,whether you knew they wanted it or not.
if you do know your stuff and you don't catch fish,that's not bad luck.for some reason the fish just don't want what you are throwing for whatever reason.
if you ever noticed i never say good luck when someone says they are going fishing or fishing a tourney.i simply say good fishing.
then again i'm not superstitious(spelling right?).

[mike0062466]

Luck can be a monstrous factor at times and it can manifest itself in different ways. Certainly, over a period of time, the more skillful anglers rise to the top. Denny Brauer, Kevin Van Dam, and others, got where they are by skill, not luck, althought Joe Blow who won a tournament and was never heard from again may have just been lucky, or maybe he was more skillful during that one tournament?

I'll illustrate two examples of what I view as luck:

1. Take the trophy hunter. Skill takes him to a likely spot where a lunker is lurking and skill enables him to choose a lure and presentation that will trigger a strike. But it's probably luck that the lunker that was hanging out there was a state-record 15# rather than an 11# lunker.

2. Or take me, who does a lot of shore fishing. I consider it a matter of great luck if fish are within casting distance of the small area of shoreline that I have access to. Without that stroke of luck, all the skills in the world (which I don't possess) will do me no good whatsoever.

So, as I stated earlier, luck is more than a simple four-letter word. It can take many different forms, but it's safe to say that the longer the period of time, the less of a factor that luck is.

[Slayem9]

Have to agree with Marty about the time factor. So many times, I've been on the water by 9am but had no luck until 3pm-6pm. I fished the same areas earlier, but either the fish weren't active or even present.

Elapsed time and hitting more potential spots (even the same spots) can be the difference between no fish or some fish. Unfortunately, the TX angler doesn't have the luxury of all-the-time-in-the-world or being able to chose a certain time in a day. If the wind is blasting and the rain a steady downpour, he's stuck, even though the sun comes out in the late pm. Everyone is trying their best to overcome the bad weather, but only the luckiest of those equally skilled, will bring home the bacon.

I guess the time factor can be compared to the power bassing - the more casts, the greater the chance of reaction strikes; the more time one has, the greater the number of casts, the more chances of finding active fish.

The time factor levels the playing field between those that were lucky, but maybe limited to one or two styles of fishing and those that are more versatile and more knowledgable of the waters fished. Time will tell. :

Good point Marty!

Sam

[BassNva]

i must respectfully disagree sam.it wasn't luck that gave those fish lockjaw,it was water temp,weather,time of year,but not luck.
look at every situation and think it through.luck has nothing to do with it.there's always a logical explanation.
luck may have something to do with playing the lottery,or slot machines....but not fishing.

[Slayem9]

I've been on the water by 9am but had no luck until 3pm-6pm.

"had no luck" is referring to no bites - pun intended. The fact that fish weren't biting or present indicates that, with the luxury of time, the odds of finding active fish increases. Of course, it's just plain bad luck when no one is catching decent fish to weigh in, not even the best of us.

I've kept track of different tournaments and noticed that only a few may be lucky on a tough day and the rest either skunked or having low weight. Because one or two anglers are able to get a few, winning, reaction strikes doesn't make them especially talented. Right place, right time.

[mike0062466]

[quote author=bassintom link=board=news;num=1097857775;start=0#13 date=10/15/04 at 21:08:07]luck may have something to do with playing the lottery,or slot machines....but not fishing.[/quote]
I have to disagree Tom. Do you not agree with me that when I have access to a small portion of shoreline that it is luck whether or not there are fish within casting distance? After all, what is luck? To me, it is things that happen to one, good or bad, over which the person had little to no control.

And how do you account for all the fishermen who don't know what they're doing and catching fish? Surely, it can't be attributable to skill. What about the guy drowning a worm under a bobber hoping for a bluegill who gets bitten by a 10# bass? We know that such things do, in fact, happen. What skill was involved other than his knowledge that his bait needed to be in the water?

Sorry, but I see luck as playing a major role in fishing, at different levels, and in many different ways.

[Infisherman1]

I think that luck has some to do with fishing. Â*When you're an experienced and knowledgable angler, you should be able to know what the bass are doing and be able to catch bass based on your knowledge and experience. Â*

There is much more bad luck for a skilled angler than there is for a novice, because sometimes an expert may know exactly what to do in a situation to make the fish bite 99% of the time. Â*However in one trip he may be doing everything right that should normally work, however he gets skunked. Â*However if he catches a bunch of fish, its not good luck that made it happen, it was skill. Â*There can still be some good luck if he gets into some schooling bass or something, but besides that, for an expert angler most of the fish they catch is from skill alone. Â*

On the other end of the spectrum, there are beginner anglers, people that couldn't tell the difference between a crankbait and a finnesse worm. Â*There is almost no such thing as "bad luck" for these guys, bcause if they don't know what they are doing, you can't expect them to catch fish, although there are sometimes exceptions. Â*Its mostly good luck because he might just throw on the lure in his tackle box that he thinks looks prettiest and cast it out there. Â*He's got good luck if it catches him fish because it was just a random guess that he got the right lure. Â*ALthough if he gets sjunked its due to his inexperience for the most part.

[BassNva]

"it wasn't luck that gave those fish lockjaw,it was water temp,weather,time of year,but not luck.
look at every situation and think it through.luck has nothing to do with it.there's always a logical explanation."
Q.What about the guy drowning a worm under a bobber hoping for a bluegill who gets bitten by a 10# bass?
A.it wasn't luck.that bass was in that area for a reason,wheter it was some type of structure or baitfist,whatever and that worm happened to be in his face.
Q.Do you not agree with me that when I have access to a small portion of shoreline that it is luck whether or not there are fish within casting distance?
A.it's not luck..the answer is the same as the above question.
there is always a reason the fish are where they are,but luck has nothing to do with it.
we say beginners luck,but again it's not luck and it's not skill.it's all because the bait landed in the fishes space.
i can keep giving you answers,but they will always be the same on this subject.
as for why a skilled angler doesn't catch fish the answer always come to the one i gave earlier in this reply.
good luck,bad luck...i don't think so.
good fishing my friend

[catfishtonyd]

Luck is what you blame, when you get your butt wacked by somebody with more skill.

Yes, "luck" will pay off once in a while. Average it out over the course of of a week, a month, a year, and it's not even a factor.

[Slayem9]

it is things that happen to one, good or bad, over which the person had little to no control.

I think Marty hit the nail on the head and so did Hula with:

When you're an experienced and knowledgable angler, you should be able to know what the bass are doing and be able to catch bass based on your knowledge and experience.

The difference between the limited angler and the experienced angler is pretty evident.
The limited anlger relies on luck far more often and is at it's mercy because he's handicapped in so many ways.
1. He doesn't know the importance of structure. especially structure in 15-20'.
2. He can't reach fish with only the one or two lure types that he has confidence in.
3. His casts are far less effective because he doesn't have a clue as to the variety of presentations one lure can have and the reasons for using certain lure types.
4. His timing is restricted to thoughtless casting, not being able to visualize potential structure.
5. Patterns mean little to the newbie.

The experienced angler may have his clock cleaned ever so often Â*(because in fishing, there is no sure thing), but on average, is consistently above average in weight and numbers. His luck is purely opportunistic, and because of skill/ experience, he is in position to take advantage of a good pattern by finding a good pattern with the right tackle and presentation.

Fishing is also a series of gambles and in fact, there are as many gambles as there are casts. You cast to a dock - bang, a fish! You cast to it again (the odds go down that another bass is under it) - bang! another bass. The third time the odds are really against you. Bang!- a third and final bass.

You played the odds because of past experience and won. You were lucky because three active fish were there; you caught three bass because you played the odds and got lucky; but, you needed more than luck to make the decision to cast three or more times to the same cover. (True story using Senkos.)

Chance (the likelihood of something happening) is a part of luck (to attempt something without knowing if one will be successful), for the experienced angler. For the less experienced, luck is blind and chances are, he'll screw the pooch more often than not! ;D

Sam

[Infisherman1]

[quote author=senkosam link=board=news;num=1097857775;start=0#19 date=10/16/04 at 21:15:15]



Chance (the likelihood of something happening) is a part of luck (to attempt something without knowing if one will be successful), for the experienced angler. Â*For the less experienced, luck is blind and chances are, he'll screw the pooch more often than not! ;D


[/quote]

You got that right. Chance is most of luck. Lets say that the bass would only hit a junebug finnesse worm, the expert is able to narrow it down to three lures really quickly based on the conditions, one of which is the right one. So he has about a 1/3 chance of getting it right the first time. A beginner may have no idea whats going on and he has about 15 lures he's thinking are good so his chances of getting it right the first time are 1/15. Now maybe the novice gets it right on his try and the pro on his second, that was purely luck that the beginner got it right faster than the expert. Thats mostly what luck is, chances going in favor of something happening that normally wouldn't whether it be for the better or the worse.

[BassNva]

we could probably go back and forth like this till the cows come home. ;D
i guess it's just a matter of whether you believe in luck or not.
this is the kind of posting i enjoy.wish more people would join in.i'd like to hear what others think about this subject.
good one sam

[mallard]

Of course there is a logical explanation for everything.

I do not see what that has to do with it at all. We mean luck as in whether these "hidden conditions" will be just right or not.

[singerloo]

It definately requires some luck to catch the world record 22lb 4oz bass!! There are not many of them that big out there, and luck doesnt depend on facts, it depends on right time, right place, right everything...
...which is at a very low chance. Luck gives you that chance.


seaphantom

[Slayem9]

Luck gives you that chance

or opportunity. You figure that of the million or so cubic feet of water, your lure hits the one that holds a 6lb plus bass. Stranger still is when that same cubic foot holds two lunkers (happens all the time.) That's pure luck.

Placing the right lure, the right way, to get both fish into the boat - now that's skill. Perseverance and patience, along with concentration, make luck happen.

If that 22 lb. fish was caught on a swimbait, trolled at 40', the right bait and speed, at the right place and time and using good tackle, allowed the hookup. 80% skill, 20% luck, with time on your side. It's about making opportunity and saving time.

Sam