Possible Tornado Outbreak (again) for TX, OK on 4/3/08

ESipes_89 · 04-02-08, 07:55 AM

First, the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook:

SPC AC 020559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N TX...OK AND WRN
AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CNTRL TX THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF AR INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL MOVE E INTO SRN CA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE E ACROSS AZ/NM AS A
DEAMPLYFING WAVE LATER THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED
WITHIN STRENGTHENING LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE RCKYS.

AT LWR LEVELS...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ENE FROM NW TX AND
WRN/SRN OK THROUGH AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THAT
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS. AS THE
AZ/NM TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...WRN PART OF FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE S
ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SRN PLNS THURSDAY EVENING. S AND E OF THE
FRONT...INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD...WITH THE 60 DEG
F SFC ISODROSOTHERM LIKELY REACHING SE MO/WRN KY BY 00Z FRIDAY.

...SRN PLNS INTO LWR TN/OH VLYS...
...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF N TX/OK AND WRN AR
THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...

COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO YIELD
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES INVOF SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW TX AND WRN/SRN OK THURSDAY
AFTN.

IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO COMMENT SPECIFICALLY ON MESOSCALE
DETAILS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
STORMS IN OK EARLY IN THE DAY. BUT OVERALL SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN A
CORRIDOR OF UNCAPPED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/
NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. AS THE WAVE
DEVELOPS ESE TOWARD THE RED RVR...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE IN THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK/CNTRL TX AND
INTO AR AND THE LWR TN/OH VLYS EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS/CLUSTERS MAY ALSO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS S CNTRL TX AS INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHEN
ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE.

..CORFIDI.. 04/02/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1130Z (6:30AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

I couldn't have said it better myself.

A few more Details to better prepare you:

Time and Place- Storms will initiate aound 3-4pm in the Vernon, Wichita Falls, Altus, Lawton area.

Movement- Storms will move ENE at around 40MPH

Main Threats- Tornadoes, Hail larger than baseballs, Winds greater than 75MPH, and Flash Flooding.

-Eric

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

A few things you may not have recognised in the SPC outlook:

SLGT = Slight
MDT = Moderate
SFC = Surface
AOA = At or around
CAPE = Covective Availible and Potential Energy (If I remember correctly

)

Helpful Weather Links:

www.spc.noaa.gov
www.weather.gov
www.wunderground.com
www.weather.cod.edu
www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=7 (Click on the date of choice for forecasts and dicussion from other chasers.)

ESipes_89 · 04-03-08, 06:14 AM

The 00Z models are extremely out of whack and I really don't know what to say. It will either be in the areas depicted yesterday (which I favor) or where it's depicted here. (Which I would hate, given the terrain and road network)

The SPC will update at 8:30am CST so the above post will be out of date by then.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I will try to update my forecast once the 12Z models come out and SPC updates but, If it still looks to be a SC Oklahoma and N Texas chase target, I may have to leave early.

Keep an eye out,
-Eric

Edit: It looks to be more potent in SE Oklahoma, N Texas, and W Arkansas during the late evening and overnight hours but, don't count out some isolated tornadoes in NW Texas and SC Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.

ESipes_89 · 04-03-08, 01:03 PM

Last SPC report before I head out. It looks to be a nightime event in SE Oklahoma, NE Texas, and W Arkansas but, I'm gonna give it a shot.

-Eric

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Go to www.spc.noaa.gov for graphics.

SPC AC 031628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX...SOUTHERN OK...AND WESTERN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE
LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA...WITH SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE UPPER FEATURES
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE SUCH
FEATURE NOW MOVING ACROSS NM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO. THIS TROUGH IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE STRONGLY ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE MAY RESULT IN HAIL IN STRONGER
CORES TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL IMPULSE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS NOW OCCURRING
OVER PARTS OF OK/TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CAPPING
INVERSION AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW
VERY HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...BUT IT APPEARS CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MORE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS TO ERODE AND FOR SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE IN
PLACE ROUGHLY FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER AR.

A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OK...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AR AFTER
DARK.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/03/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1649Z (11:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

MississippiBoy · 04-04-08, 05:18 PM

ESipes, you should've been here instead of TX or OK. Had 3-4 tornadoes within 50 miles of here today. First one west of here, tore off some roofs and felled a lot of trees. The other 3 were a lot closer. One went right over my brother's work about 10 miles NW of me, the others a little farther away, due north.
The dealership is still without power, but we have a big ol' generator kicking along back there. No red lights within 5 miles of here are working, though. That's gonna be hell getting home...

bamabassman · 04-04-08, 09:42 PM

misissippiboy we had alerts from noon till 8 p.m. here. maybe a touch here and there. hope no one got hurt there.

04-02-08, 07:55 AM	#1
ESipes_89 BassFishin.Com Active Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Cordell, OK Posts: 148	Possible Tornado Outbreak (again) for TX, OK on 4/3/08 First, the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: SPC AC 020559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED APR 02 2008 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N TX...OK AND WRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CNTRL TX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AR INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL MOVE E INTO SRN CA BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE E ACROSS AZ/NM AS A DEAMPLYFING WAVE LATER THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE RCKYS. AT LWR LEVELS...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ENE FROM NW TX AND WRN/SRN OK THROUGH AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS. AS THE AZ/NM TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...WRN PART OF FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE S ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SRN PLNS THURSDAY EVENING. S AND E OF THE FRONT...INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD...WITH THE 60 DEG F SFC ISODROSOTHERM LIKELY REACHING SE MO/WRN KY BY 00Z FRIDAY. ...SRN PLNS INTO LWR TN/OH VLYS... ...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF N TX/OK AND WRN AR THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY... COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP WIND FIELD...INCREASING MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES INVOF SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY LINE AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW TX AND WRN/SRN OK THURSDAY AFTN. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO COMMENT SPECIFICALLY ON MESOSCALE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION STORMS IN OK EARLY IN THE DAY. BUT OVERALL SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF UNCAPPED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/ NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. AS THE WAVE DEVELOPS ESE TOWARD THE RED RVR...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE IN THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK/CNTRL TX AND INTO AR AND THE LWR TN/OH VLYS EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS/CLUSTERS MAY ALSO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS S CNTRL TX AS INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHEN ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE. ..CORFIDI.. 04/02/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1130Z (6:30AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME ----------------------------------------------------------------------- I couldn't have said it better myself. A few more Details to better prepare you: Time and Place- Storms will initiate aound 3-4pm in the Vernon, Wichita Falls, Altus, Lawton area. Movement- Storms will move ENE at around 40MPH Main Threats- Tornadoes, Hail larger than baseballs, Winds greater than 75MPH, and Flash Flooding. -Eric ----------------------------------------------------------------------- A few things you may not have recognised in the SPC outlook: SLGT = Slight MDT = Moderate SFC = Surface AOA = At or around CAPE = Covective Availible and Potential Energy (If I remember correctly) Helpful Weather Links: www.spc.noaa.gov www.weather.gov www.wunderground.com www.weather.cod.edu www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=7 (Click on the date of choice for forecasts and dicussion from other chasers.) Attached Thumbnails __________________ *Spring time storm chaser, Year round Bass Angler!!!* Largest bass; 6lbs 1oz., Length: 22" Girth: 15"

04-03-08, 06:14 AM	#2
ESipes_89 BassFishin.Com Active Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Cordell, OK Posts: 148	The 00Z models are extremely out of whack and I really don't know what to say. It will either be in the areas depicted yesterday (which I favor) or where it's depicted here. (Which I would hate, given the terrain and road network) The SPC will update at 8:30am CST so the above post will be out of date by then. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- I will try to update my forecast once the 12Z models come out and SPC updates but, If it still looks to be a SC Oklahoma and N Texas chase target, I may have to leave early. Keep an eye out, -Eric Edit: It looks to be more potent in SE Oklahoma, N Texas, and W Arkansas during the late evening and overnight hours but, don't count out some isolated tornadoes in NW Texas and SC Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. __________________ *Spring time storm chaser, Year round Bass Angler!!!* Largest bass; 6lbs 1oz., Length: 22" Girth: 15" Last edited by ESipes_89; 04-03-08 at 08:37 AM.

04-03-08, 01:03 PM	#3
ESipes_89 BassFishin.Com Active Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Cordell, OK Posts: 148	Last SPC report before I head out. It looks to be a nightime event in SE Oklahoma, NE Texas, and W Arkansas but, I'm gonna give it a shot. -Eric ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Go to www.spc.noaa.gov for graphics. SPC AC 031628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...SOUTHERN OK...AND WESTERN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...WITH SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE UPPER FEATURES PROGRESSING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE SUCH FEATURE NOW MOVING ACROSS NM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE STRONGLY ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE MAY RESULT IN HAIL IN STRONGER CORES TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL IMPULSE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS NOW OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF OK/TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW VERY HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX...BUT IT APPEARS CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO ERODE AND FOR SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE ROUGHLY FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER AR. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OK...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AR AFTER DARK. ..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/03/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1649Z (11:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME __________________ *Spring time storm chaser, Year round Bass Angler!!!* Largest bass; 6lbs 1oz., Length: 22" Girth: 15"

04-04-08, 05:18 PM	#4
MississippiBoy BassFishin.Com Super Veteran Join Date: May 2007 Location: Ridgeland MS Posts: 3,923	ESipes, you should've been here instead of TX or OK. Had 3-4 tornadoes within 50 miles of here today. First one west of here, tore off some roofs and felled a lot of trees. The other 3 were a lot closer. One went right over my brother's work about 10 miles NW of me, the others a little farther away, due north. The dealership is still without power, but we have a big ol' generator kicking along back there. No red lights within 5 miles of here are working, though. That's gonna be hell getting home...

04-04-08, 09:42 PM	#5
bamabassman BassFishin.Com Premier Elite Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: cedar bluff, alabama Posts: 15,292	misissippiboy we had alerts from noon till 8 p.m. here. maybe a touch here and there. hope no one got hurt there.

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